Resumen
This article explores the future of sustainable development in Mexico by 2030 through scenario planning. The research is based on expert opinion using qualitative foresight methods. To this end 30 experts were interviewed from the academic, public, and private sectors. Results show a convergence in expert opinion concerning uncertainties that include increased risk in the political environment, deteriorating public safety and disappointing economic growth. Using the cross-matrix methodology, four scenarios were developed that present different potential futures by 2030. The most likely scenario indicates that Mexico is unlikely to meet the Sustainable Development Goals of the UN Agenda 2030.
Citas
Alford, John and Head, Brian W. (2017). Wicked and Less Wicked Problems: A Typology and a Contingency Framework. Policy and Society, 36(3), 397-413. https://doi.org/10.1080/14494035.2017.1361634
Arango Morales, Xóchitl and Cuevas Pérez, Verónica A. (2014). Método de Análisis Estructural: Matriz de Impactos Cruzados Multiplicación Aplicada a una Clasificación (MICMAC). En Karla Sáenz López and Gerardo Tamez González (Coords.), Métodos y técnicas cualitativas y cuantitativas aplicables a la investigación en ciencias sociales (pp. 394-419). Tirant Humanidades.
ATLAS.ti Scientific Software Development GmbH. (2022). ATLAS.ti Windows (version 22.1.3) [Qualitative data analysis software]. https://atlasti.com
Calva, José Luis (2019). The Mexican Economy in Its Neoliberal Labyrinth. Trimestre Económico, 86(343), 579-622. https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v86i343.921
Chang, Ha-Joon (2007). Bad Samaritans: Rich Nations, Poor Policies and the Threat to the Developing World. Random House Business Books.
Charmaz, Katy, and Belgrave, Linda L. (2012). Qualitative interviewing and grounded theory analysis. In The SAGE Handbook of Interview Research: The Complexity of the Craft (pp. 347-365), Sage Publications. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781452218403.n25
Coa (Americas Society/Council of the Americas) (2022). AMLO Presidential Approval tracker. Infogram, Presidential Approval Tracker. https://bit.ly/3fO3ztO
De Klerk, Yvette; Ekow Manuel, Michael and Kitada, Momoko (2021). Scenario Planning for an Autonomous Future: A Comparative Analysis of National Preparedness of Selected Countries. Marine Policy, 127, 104428. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104428
Esquivel, Gerardo (2020). Los Impactos Económicos de La Pandemia En México. Economía UNAM, 17(51), 28-44. https://acortar.link/3rsj9T
Glenn, Jerome C. and Gordon, Theodore J. (2009). Futures Research Methodology (3° ed.) [CDROM] (399-433), The Millennium Project. https://bit.ly/3LZLjtm
Godet, Michel (2012). To Predict or to Build the Future? Futurist, 46(3), 46-49. https://bit.ly/3e66iy5
Hernández-Blanco, Marcello; Costanza, Robert; Anderson, Sharolyn; Kubiszewski, Ida and Paul Sutton (2020). Current Research in Environmental Sustainability Future Scenarios for the Value of Ecosystem Services in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2050. Current Research in Environmental Sustainability, 2: 100008. https://doi.org/http://10.1016/j.crsust.2020.100008.
IMF (International Monetary Fund) (2021a). World Economic Outlook 2021. Managing Divergent Recoveries, IMF. https://bit.ly/3Rt6eGw
IMF (International Monetary Fund) (2021b). Mexico: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report. IMF Country Reports No. 21/240.
Kuribayashi, Miki; Kazuhiro Hayashi and Akaike, Shinichi (2018). A Proposal of a New Foresight Platform Considering of Sustainable Development Goals. European Journal of Futures Research, 6(1), 1-16. https://doi.org/http://10.1007/s40309-017-0130-8
Lengyel-Almos, Krisztina E. and Kato-Vidal, Enrique L. (2021, September 20-21). Sustainable Development in México through the Eyes of Experts [conference]. 9th Annual International Conference on Sustainable Development, New York. https://acortar.link/QFKFSD
López Obrador, Andrés M. (2019). 100 compromisos del presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador a un año del triunfo. In Presidente de México. https://bit.ly/3Wjsman
Moreno-Brid, Juan Carlos; Pardinas Carpizo, Juan E. and Ros Bosch, Jaime (2009). Economic Development and Social Policies in Mexico. Economy and Society, 38(1), 154-76. https://doi.org/http://10.1080/03085140802560652
Mozuni, Mehdi, and Wolfgang, Jonas (2017). An introduction to the morphological Delphi Method for design: A tool for future-oriented design research, She Ji: The Journal of Design, Economics, and Innovation, 3(4), 303-318. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sheji.2018.02.004
O’Neil, Shannon K. (2022, March 10). Mexico’s Democracy Is Crumbling under AMLO. Council on Foreign Relations. https://on.cfr.org/3EiTBKW
Plan Nacional de Desarrollo 2019-2024 (2019, 12 de julio). Diario Oficial de la Federación. Cámara de Diputados del H. Congreso de la Unión. https://bit.ly/3fxBdUr
Popper, Rafael (2008). How Are Foresight Methods Selected? Foresight, 10(6), 62-89. https://doi.org/https://10.1108/14636680810918586.
Rhydderch, Alun (2017). Scenario Building: The 2x2 Matrix Technique: Prospective and Strategic Foresight Toolbox. Futuribles International, 1-19. https://bit.ly/3Rv3uZb
Sachs, Jeffrey; Kroll, Christian; Lafortune, Guillaume; Fuller, Grayson and Wolem, Finn (2021). The Decade of Action for the Sustainable Development Goals. Sustainable Development Report 2021. https://bit.ly/3RoYFRb
Schoemaker, Paul J.H. (1995). Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking. MITSloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40. https://acortar.link/ArbQBs
Semarnat (Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales) (2020). Nationally Determined Contributions Registry. Government of the Republic. https://bit.ly/3rmUaM7
SHCP (Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público) (2020). SDG Sovereign Bond Framework. United Mexican States Building Prosperity: Financing SDGs for an Inclusive Economy. Gobierno de México/SHCP. https://bit.ly/3y8STvU
UN General Assembly (United Nations General Assembly) (2015). Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, A/RES/10/1, vol. 16301, UN. https://bit.ly/3CnR80C
UNDP-GCPSE (United Nations Development Programme - Global Centre for Public Service Excellence) (2018). Foresight Manual: Empowered Futures for the 2030 Agenda. UNDPGCPSE. https://bit.ly/3EazPkQ
UN (United Nations) (2020). Sustainable Development Goals Progress Chart 2020. UN, 1-7. https://bit.ly/3Stu2v2
UN Desa (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs) (2021). The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2021. UN Desa. https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2021/
Esta obra está bajo una Licencia Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivar 4.0 Internacional.