Keywords
planificación de escenarios
México
m´étodo Delphi
How to Cite
Abstract
Este artículo explora el futuro del desarrollo sustentable México al 2030 a través de planificación de escenarios; basado en métodos cualitativos de prospectiva: el método Delphi, análisis de impacto cruzado y planificación de escenarios. Los datos primarios provienen de entrevistar a treinta expertos. Los resultados indican convergencia de opinión de expertos respecto a incertidumbres que incluyen mayor riesgo político, empeoramiento de seguridad pública y lento crecimiento económico. Usando metodología de matriz cruzada, se desarrollaron cuatro escenarios que presentan diferentes futuros potenciales para 2030. El más probable es que México incumpla los Objetivos de la Agenda 2030 de la ONU.
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