Keywords
fluctuations
macroeconomic variables
monetary policy
How to Cite
Abstract
This article analyses cyclic fluctuations in the State of Mexico and Mexico from the point of view of the growth cycles in the period between 1993 and 2005. The comparison of our results with those published beforehand indicates changes in the magnitude and nature of the relationships of the cycle as well as in several macroeconomic variables, which suggests the possibility of a structural change during the first half of the nineties. Furthermore, the cycles in Mexico and the State of Mexico are very similar, in particular in their relationship with national variables. The State variables have, at best, a moderate relationship with the indicator of the cycle and they never precede it. This can be evidence of the importance of the national clashes in the State cyclic fluctuations.References
Acevedo, Ernesto (2006), “Inflación y crecimiento económico en México: una relación no lineal”, Economía Mexicana, nueva época, XV(2), México, pp. 199-249.
Agénor, Pierre R., C. John McDermott y Eswar S. Prasad (2000), “Macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries: some stylized facts”, The World Bank Economic Review, XIV(2), Washington, pp. 251–285.
Ahumada, Hildegart y María L. Garegnani (2000), “Assesing HP filter performance for Argentina and U. S. macro aggregates”, Journal of Applied Economics, III(2), Buenos Aires, pp. 257-284.
Alper, C. Emre (2002), “Business Cycles, Excess Volatility and Capital Floes: Evidence from México and Turkey”, Russian and East European Finance and Trade, 38(4), Nueva York, pp. 22-54.
Altonji, Joseph y Mailer Ham (1990), “Variation in employment growth in Canada: The role of external, national, regional, and industrial factors”, Journal of Labor Economics, 8, Chicago, pp. 198-236.
Braun, Miguel (2001), “Why is fiscal policy procyclical in developing countries?”, Universidad de Harvard, inédito.
Canova, Fabio (1998), “Detrending and business cycles facts”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 41(3), Amsterdam, pp. 475-512.
Casar, José I., Gonzalo Rodríguez y Jaime Ros (1985), “Ahorro y balanza de pagos: un análisis de las restricciones al crecimiento económico de México”, Economía Mexicana, 7, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, México, pp. 21-33.
Castañeda, Gonzalo (2000), “Internal capital markets and financial crisis. An explanation of the Mexican recovery after the 1995 crisis”, Universidad de las Américas, Puebla, inédito.
Castillo, Ramón, Alejandro Díaz y Edna Fragoso (2004), “Sincronización entre las economías de México y Estados Unidos: el caso del sector manufacturero”, Comercio Exterior, 54(7), México, pp.620-627.
Chadha, Bankim y Eswar Prasad (1994), “Are Prices Countercyclical? Evidence from the G7”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Amsterdam, 34, pp. 239-257.
Clark, Todd (1998), “Employment fluctuations in U. S. regions and industries: The roles of national, region specific, and industry specific shocks”, Journal of Labor Economics, 16, Chicago, pp. 202-219.
Cottani, Joaquín A., Domingo F. Cavallo y M. Shabaz Khan (1990), “Real exchange rate behavior and economic performance in LDCs”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 39, Los Ángeles, pp. 61-76.
Cuevas, Alfredo, Miguel Messmacher y Alejandro Werner (2003), “Sincronización macroeconómica entre México y sus socios comerciales del TLCAN”, Banco de México, Documento de Investigación, núm. 2003-1.
Dornbusch, Rudiger y Alejandro Werner (1994), “Mexico: Stabilization, Reform and no Growth”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, Washington, pp. 253-315.
Erquizio, Alfredo (2007), “Ciclos económicos del Estado de México en el contexto regional: 1980-2005”, en P. Mejía Reyes, O. M. Rodríguez Pichardo y L. E. del Moral Barrera (coords.), Desempeño económico, producción manufacturera y políticas públicas en el Estado de México, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Toluca, en prensa.
Gavin, Michael y Roberto Perotti (1997), “Fiscal policy in Latin America”, en Ben Bernanke y Julio Rotemberg (eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997. MIT Press, Cambridge, Ma.
Herrera, Jorge (2004), “Business cycles in Mexico and the United States: do they share common movements?”, Journal of Applied Economics, VII(2), Buenos Aires, pp. 303-323.
Hodrick, Robert J. y Edward C. Prescott (1997), “Postwar U. S. business cycles: an empirical investigation”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1), Columbus, pp. 1-16.
Kamin, Steven B. y John H. Rogers (2000), “Output and real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico”, Journal of Development Economics, 61, Yale, New Haven, pp.85-109.
Kose, M. Ayhan, Guy M. Meredith y Christopher M. Towe (2004), “How has NAFTA affected the Mexican economy? Review and evidence”, Internacional Monetary Fund, Washington, Working Paper WP/04/59.
Kydland, Finn E. y Edward C. Prescott (1990), “Business cycles: real facts and monetary myth”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, XIV(2), Minnesota, pp. 3-18.
Loría, Eduardo y Gerardo Fuji (1997), “The balance of payment constraint to Mexico’s economic growth 1950-1996”, Canadian Journal of Development Studies, XVIII(1), Ottawa, pp. 119-137.
Lucas, Robert E. (1977), “Understanding business cycles”, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series in Public Policy, 5, Pittsburgh, pp. 7-29.
Mejía-Reyes, Pablo (2003), “Regularidades empíricas en los ciclos económicos de México: producción, inversión, inflación y balanza comercial”, Economía Mexicana, nueva época, XII(2), México, pp. 231-274.
Mejía-Reyes, Pablo (2004), “Modelling nonlinearities in the Mexican output growth”, El Colegio Mexiquense, Documento de Investigación núm. 91, México.
Mejía-Reyes, Pablo, Elías E. Gutiérrez y Armando Pérez (2006), “Los claroscuros de la sincronización internacional de los ciclos económicos: evidencia sobre la manufactura de México”, Ciencia Ergo Sum, 13(2), Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Toluca, pp. 133-142.
Navarrete-López, Emma Liliana (2001), Juventud y trabajo. Un reto para principios de siglo, México, El Colegio Mexiquense, Zinacantepec.
Negro, Marco del y Alejandro Ponce (1999), “Is North America an optimal currency area? Regional versus national shocks in the United States, Canada and Mexico”, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México, inédito.
Norrbin, Stefan y Don Schlagenhauf (1988), “An inquiry into the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, Ámsterdam, pp. 43-70.
Phillips, Keith R., Lucinda Vargas y Victor Zarnowitz (1996), “New tools for analysing the Mexican economy: indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators”, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Economic Review, second quarter, Dallas, pp. 2-15.
Ponce, Alejandro (2001), “Determinantes de los ciclos económicos en México: ¿choques agregados o desagregados?”, Gaceta de Economía, ITAM, México, año 6, 12, pp. 117-155.
Ravn, Morten O. y Harald Uhling (1997), “On adjusting the HP-filter for the frequency of observations”, London Business School, Londres, inédito.
Ron, Francisco E. (2001), “Ajuste dinámico y equilibrio entre la producción industrial y la actividad bursátil en México”, Momento Económico, 118, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México, pp. 21-38.
Sala-i-Martin, Xavier y Jeffrey Sachs (1992), “Fiscal federalism and optimum currency areas: Evidence from Europe and from United States”, en Matthew B. Canzoneri, Paul R. Masson y Vittorio Grilli (eds.), Establishing a Central Bank: Issues in Europe and Lessons from the U.S., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 195-219.
Samolyk, Katherine (1994), “Banking conditions and regional economic performance”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 34, Ámsterdam, pp. 259-278.
Stock, James H. y Mark W. Watson (1998), “Business cycle fluctuations in U. S. macroeconomic time series”, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 6528, Washington.
Tornell, Aarón, Frank Westermann y Lorenza Martínez (2004), “NAFTA and Mexico’s less-than-stellar performance”, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 10289, Washington.
Torres, Alberto (2002), “Estabilidad en variables nominales y el ciclo económico: el caso de México”, La inflación en México. Gaceta de Economía, ITAM, México, tomo I, pp. 61-116.
Torres, Alberto y Óscar Vela (2003), “Trade integration and synchronization between business cycles of Mexico and the United States”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 14(3), Ámsterdam, pp. 319-342.
